Furthermore, more intense, frequent and faster exchanges will be more polluting. Availble at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/26/the-biggest-game-changer-in-100-years-chinese-money-gushes-into-sri-lanka. Equally important, two-way educational and cultural exchange between Chinese and local people in One Belt, One Road areas should be promoted. The Center for Strategic and International Studies analyzed a sample of BRI projects for which data were available and estimates that more than 60% of Chinese-funded BRI projects have been assigned to Chinese firms (World Bank, 2019). This article aims to identify the greatest opportunities and risks related to the largest infrastructure project of all time, providing some recommendations to cope with the multitude aftermaths of such a massive plan while reaching its full potential. Parallel to this, however, it is necessary to resolve security problems, otherwise transactional costs might increase. One Belt One Road (OBOR) is a government initiative proposed by China’s President Xi Jinping in September 2013 for joint economic development spanning 65 countries. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/29/business/china-belt-and-road-slows.html. Dr. Lu Miao is the cofounder and executive secretary general of the Center for China and Globalization and secretary general of the China Global Talent Society under the Ministry of Human Resources. World Bank. 2018. Votre adresse de messagerie ne sera pas publiée. Capacity building in nurturing partnership with NGOs and the civil society. While doing projects, NGOs should be invited to express their concerns and interests. In 2017, corridor economies accounted collectively for about 40% of the global merchandise exports, almost five times higher than in 2000, and almost 40% of China’s overall merchandise export (World Bank, 2019). Currently, the prospects of China’s ‘One Belt One Road Initiative’ (hereinafter referred to as OBOR) are dim. Recruiting and nurturing talent with an international mindset. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (formerly named One Belt, One Road) is President Xi Jinping’s flagship foreign policy, projecting the country’s economi... T +44 20 7374 5252 Select Language “The Climate Change Promise of China’s Belt and Road Initiative”. P osted March 5, 2018. Improving the regulatory environment and legal protection of investments would increase private sector participation, this reducing fiscal risks and ensuring of BRI projects. That is not an isolated case since many low and middle-income economies already have poor medium-term outlook for debt sustainability. Initially announced in the year 2013 with the purpose of restoring the ancient Silk Route that connected Asia and Europe, the … Most of BRI routes pass through ecologically important and sensitive areas prone to flooding, degradation, and landslides, mostly inadequately protected. In the short term, Chinese companies ought to beef up their internal security by making use of good private security contractors. A study by the Tsinghua Center for Finance & Development estimates that the current carbon footprint of the Belt and Road Initiative should be reduced by 68% to stay within this limit. A great deal remains to be done with respect to engineering safety and management issues. This can play a crucial role in promoting cross-cultural awareness between China and One Belt, One Road countries. “What is China’s belt and road initiative?”. When these fail to properly gather information and conduct due diligence, they are more prone to engage in speculative, bubble-like investment behavior. Many of the One Belt, One Road countries, especially those in Central Asia, are among the poorest economies in the world and have dysfunctional and corrupt governments. Large infrastructure programs of the kind have historically had detrimental impact and immense implications for the environment. 10 janvier 2020 13 janvier 2020 1200. article par Matteo Cassinelli (EnvIM 2019) The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious program of investments aimed at improving connectivity, national cooperation, integration of markets and income of BRI countries. The first, and the one garnering the most attention, is an overland route that begins in Central China, moves through Xinjiang and China’s west into Central Asia, across the Middle East, and terminates in Europe. Therefore, international cooperation is once again fundamental to enhance open and transparent public procurement while monitoring services would limit corruption. 07 août 2018. Potential risks also exist in the One Belt, One Road Central Asian countries. … China's OBOR (One Belt One Road) is a grand ambitious project running across the 3 continents - Asia/Europe /Africa. The location of new roads and rails greatly matter on the positive or negative impact of net benefits. To ship goods from China to Central Europe by sea currently takes about one month, while it requires half of the time by train, although costs are higher and cross-border trade is more complicated. ESIA procedures would be even more efficient if carried out by institutions representing all affected sectors in China and host countries. Low deforestation and low prior economic development areas are those that do not offer the conditions for rapid economic development so that immediate effects from BRI infrastructures may remain circumscribed. Chinese enterprises need to be business-like and realistic in factoring potential risks into the cost of investment projects. Myanmar is a case in point. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Silk Road Fund are the two institutions that have been established to financially support BRI infrastructure constructions. According to the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, Chinese investment in One Belt, One Road countries amounted to $92.46 billion in 2014, 15 times higher than it was in 2005. The views expressed on BRINK are those of the individual contributors and not necessarily the views of Marsh & McLennan or any of its businesses. WWF. In fact, China participated in 240 such projects in 25 BRI countries by the end of 2016, even though most of them were launched before 2013, when the BRI was undertaken (Chao Z., 2018). This is part 2 of a two-part blog post on the One Belt, One Road or Belt and Road Initiative and the opportunities and risk this poses for Singapore as a regional HUB for the region. The second is a maritime route that flows south through Southeast Asia, then west across the littoral states of South Asia, on past the Arabian Peninsula and East Africa, and finally concludes in the Mediterranean. These forests are close to road and rail networks yet not cleared, but conditions are optimal for the expansion of economic activities. Pacific Standard. Chinese One Road, One Belt and its complementary 21th Century Maritime Silk Road are working on building these missing networks. Firms investing in One Belt, One Road should involve such organizations in planning for such projects and attempting to balance the interests of the stakeholders involved in them. Areas that have experienced medium natural forest cover loss and medium prior development in the last 15 years are expected to see the greatest deforestation and eco-services losses. A working infrastructure is key to innovation, like it was already during the first industrialization in the 18 th and 19 th century in Western Europe and the US. Héraud B., 2019. Figure 2: Magnitude and type of BRI infrastructures. But domestic risks and challenges that could undermine the one belt, one road also deserve equal examination. Corruption can vary along the corridors according to the quality of domestic institutions. In the long term, however, they need to establish trust and build durable partnerships with local stakeholders in the One Belt, One Road countries targeted for investment. The effects of cumulative impacts can affect different Earth systems such as the atmosphere, the biosphere, the hydrosphere and the geosphere at a local, regional, and global level (Chen Teo H. et al., 2019). Small- to medium-sized enterprises involved in manufacturing light goods and technologically advanced products are also boosting their investment activity in One Belt, One Road countries. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious program of investments aimed at improving connectivity, national cooperation, integration of markets and income of BRI countries. The limited publicly accessible information suggests that the majority of BRI contracts have been allocated to Chinese suppliers and contractors, mainly financed by China’s state-owned banks. Think tanks, particularly those run independently, are in a better position to evaluate development risk. The inability of corridor countries in promoting ecological and environmental protection and the complexity of international cooperation projects bring a series of challenges to greening the Belt and Road. One Belt One Road: Modern Risks along an Ancient Trade Route November 14, 2016 The impact of reviving the Silk Road through Central Asia and sea trade routes across regional Asia has been the subject of much speculation. When social and environmental impacts of a project are too important, international banks should use ESIA guidelines as a major tool to foresee restoration of degraded environments or revoke the funds to impede its realization. For its part, China has repeatedly stated that One Belt, One Road is for promoting economic and cultural exchange, as opposed to being a Trojan horse for extending Chinese geopolitical influence. In this report, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) will unpack “one belt, one road” plan and explore the risks that will face companies seeking opportunities in this territory. Xi Jinping was elected President by the National People’s Congress in 2013. Within areas that already faced high deforestation and high prior economic development there is little natural forest cover left so that minimal forest impact is expected from transport projects. OVERVIEW. article par Matteo Cassinelli (EnvIM 2019). Center for Strategic and International Studies. Available at: https://www.novethic.fr/actualite/environnement/climat/isr-rse/la-nouvelle-route-de-la-soie-pourrait-mettre-en-peril-l-accord-de-paris-147649.html. Executive Secretary General of the Center for China and Globalization, Senior Fellow for Bruegel and Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, President of Chicago Council on Global Affairs. One Belt One Road: Opportunities and Risks for Singapore (Part 2) Deborah Elms. At times, firms also have difficulties obtaining sufficient intelligence and financing to effectively carry out investment projects. This ambitious scheme seeks to connect China more closely with Europe, Southeast and Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa. The legitimacy of the program cannot be taken for granted, especially by those countries that are strictly involved to the initiative. China and Japan are competing to raise their influence in South Asian countries. Air pollution from industrial land and sea transports is not the only problem posed by new silk routes. These principles are aligned with the goals of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement. In 2017, struggling to make repayments, the government agreed to lease the port and the surrounding area to the same Chinese company for 99 years (Safi M. et al., 2018). Therefore, they bring great risks and uncertainties for the further development of countries in the One Belt and One Road (OBOR) region. Ruta M., 2018. For instance, it has been estimated that BRI projects will increase global carbon dioxide emissions by 0.3%, but 7% or more in low-income economies such as Lao PDR, Cambodia and Kyrgyz Republic due to the rise of sectors with high emissions (World Bank, 2019). I. Introductiongrowth and improvement in their quality of life as China becomes further integrated into the global economy (Hu 2015) . Chao Z., 2018. “The $900bn question: what is the Belt and Road initiative?”. 2019. Like any large-scale and ambitious undertaking, One Belt, One Road entails not just great opportunities, but considerable risks as well. All rights reserved. Available at: https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2017/05/14/what-is-chinas-belt-and-road initiative. “Environmental Impacts of Infrastructure Development under the Belt and Road Initiative”. To better understand conditions in diverse and complex foreign environments, Chinese companies investing in One Belt, One Road must effectively integrate knowledgeable foreign talent into the management of overseas investment operations. Chinese investment in the country fell from $407 million in the 2012 fiscal year to just $46 million in the 2013 fiscal year, a drop of nearly 90 percent. The project is bound up with the promotion and exercise of China’s “soft power,” aimed at devising Asian solutions for Asian problems. It supplements the research that the EIU has done previously on the overseas investment for Chinese companies. During the second bi-annual Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation on April 25-27, 2019, China assured the world that the BRI will be in accordance to the “Green Investment Principles for the Belt and Road” call promoting environmental friendliness, climate resilience, and social inclusiveness under new BRI investments. Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his speech at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in May 2017 said “we should pursue the new vision of green development and a way of life and work that is green, low-carbon, circular and sustainable. This may lead to immediate habitat loss, wildlife and timber trafficking, which are long-term economic and environmental effects with bigger impacts. Meanwhile, China and Bangladesh were continuing to negotiate approval for the Sonadia deep water port, which is located about 15 miles away from Matarbari. On the contrary, it may kill local activities, create some new forms of path dependence and degrade local condition of living provoking localized welfare loss. The concept took form o… The stakes are high and potential rewards and risks need to be carefully studied. However, long-term impacts such as migration and complementary investments could represent an enormous risk resulting in forest clearing escalation. One Belt, One Road: Visions and Challenges of China’s Geoeconomic Strategy. For example, Uzbekistan strongly opposes China’s hydropower project in, as the proposed dam is located upstream on the Amu Darya River in Tajikistan. Both initiatives were announced by President Xi Jinping in 2013. How One Belt One Road Works . First announced in 2013, One Belt One Road, also referred to as Belt Road Initiative (BRI), represents a resurrection of the ancient trade routes known as the Silk Road, which connected China with the economies of nearly 70 other countries across several continents. To assess deforestation risks within the BRI corridors, three landscape settings have been distinguished according to their prior development and prior forest loss (Losos E. et al., 2019).